MSc Thesis Abstract
Do it alone, it's weird.
Do it with others, it's a club.
Using arguments drawn from the studies of history, and contemporary studies on public support for the European Union, this paper supplements the mainstream economics and cost-benefit oriented theories in order to explain the dynamics of some of the lowest levels of public support found among the new EU member states. Estonia and Latvia, which are two of the three former Soviet republics to have radically reformed their economies and political systems to reintegrate with the European communities, have consistently shown low levels of support for the EU membership. These levels have differed from those found in the third Baltic country, Lithuania, and also in several other Central and Eastern European countries, which became members of the EU in 2004. Yet, the voter turnouts of the Baltic republics in the 2003 referendums were among the highest ones. This paper uses logistic regression to test whether some specific culturo-historical factors could help explain these irregularities. In addition to a discussion of potentially significant culturo-historical factors, bundled with some findings of other off-mainstream studies, data from the Eurobarometer survey series is used for the analysis. The analysis tests the effects of cultural and historical developments, which have produced issues related to the ethnic mix, different socialization and ideological conditioning of different generations, and the importance of religion, or rather, the emphasized secularism similar to the neighbouring Scandinavian region. The study suggests different systematic interpretations to at least one of the variables - that of age - based on historical arguments. This study differs from the other few regional studies in that it tries to explain the hostility, or low aggregate support levels, as opposed to testing the general theoretical determinants of positivity towards EU membership. The paper finds both old age and membership in the largest minority group to be statistically significant predictors of negativity towards the EU, and suggests that the accuracy of models based on classical socio-economic theories alone can be improved by including culturo-historical arguments in the formulae. (© Marko Lepik, 2006)